Fantasy Mid-season Review Part I

Welcome back to The Jason Station blog. It's been a while, but I figured there was no better time to get back to the blog, as we are now at the halfway point of the NFL season. With that in mind it is time for some analysis. Looking back at both the ADP (average draft pick) from ESPN leagues and some of the drafts I participated in, I'll be listing draft steals, busts, and guys you wished you drafted but didn't. Below is Part I - Draft Steals. Steals are those guys that are ranking at the top of their position and were drafted outside of the first couple of rounds. If a guy most likely went undrafted, obviously he will not be listed as a steal (those guys will show up in Part III.) The list for steals (as to be expected) is smaller than the draft busts list - the bust list for this year might be bigger than any other year. Starting off the Mid-season Review on a positive note, here are the draft steals:

Arian Foster, RB, Texans - The most obvious draft steal, as he is currently ranked the #1 fantasy RB. In ESPN leagues, he was the 23rd RB taken! His ADP was 49.3, meaning he went at the very end of round 5. I have to admit that I really enjoy pointing this out as I own him in all 4 of the leagues I am in. In the ESPN leagues I am in, I grabbed him in the 4th round. Not to spoil the draft busts list but here are some of the names drafted ahead of Foster: Shonn Greene, both Carolina Panthers RBs, and Pierre Thomas. Ouch. The funny thing is Foster was on everyone's radar. Just like Ray Rice last year, Foster was predicted to have a breakout year. I have no idea why people didn't grab him in round 4 or earlier, but boy am I glad that I did.

Hakeem Nicks, WR, Giants - Nicks was the 25th WR taken, with an ADP of 76.2, so he wasn't ignored. However, his teammate Steve Smith was the 14th WR taken. If you were one of the wise ones and grabbed this guy before round 8 or even thought he would be the #1 over Smith, congrats to you. Nicks has been tearing it up (since week 4 he has had over 100 yards receiving 4 time in 5 games.) In one league I'm in (a PPR league) Nicks went 103 overall.

Zach Miller, TE, Raiders - Miller was the 12th TE drafted meaning in some drafts he might not have been drafted at all (his ADP was 117.2) and the guys that did are reaping the benefits now. With the exception of Antonio Gates, TEs were super over valued in drafts (think Brent Celek being the 5th TE taken.) Miller makes the list due to his 4 TDs in 5 weeks before getting injured, but guys like Dustin Keller and Aaron Hernandez were available at the end of drafts too (good thing for Clark and Finley owners.) Unless you can grabbed one of the top 4 guys (Gates, Clark, Finley, or Vernon Davis) it wasn't worth taking a TE until the very late rounds. Next year TEs might be similar to closers in baseball, meaning you shouldn't overpay unless you can get one of the top two guys.

Ahmad Bradshaw, RB, Giants - This is one of the most baffling results from ESPN drafts: Bradshaw's ADP - 81.1 Brandon Jacobs' ADP - 63.7. Are you kidding me? How could you draft Jacobs over Bradshaw? There is no way that you watched any preseason games or read any fantasy articles if you drafted Jacobs ahead of Bradshaw, or even drafted him in the first 10 rounds. Anyway, Bradshaw is currently ranked #9 among RBs. Also, I have him 3 leagues and he is such a great flex play/bye week buffer. Yeah, I have Foster and Bradshaw in most leagues plus Adrian Peterson in 2 of them.

Mike Williams (both), WRs, Tampa Bay and Seattle - Linked together for an obvious reason, plus both were taken within about 1 round of each other 124.5 for SEA and 138.2 for TB. Both guys have been pretty good fill-ins for your injured players and/or good bye week buffers. Though both can be spotty plays, they have good potential going forward.

LaDainian Tomlinson, RB, Jets - The final and most most improbable steal on this list. Most of the people above were taken higher than usual because people knew they liked them. The guys that took Tomlinson were "stuck" with him. Everyone thought Shonn Greene was gonna be the guy and that Tomlinson was all washed up. Quite the opposite. LDT's ADP - 99.7, Greene's - 22.8. In one league I'm in, the guy that drafted Greene dropped him two weeks ago. Good for Tomlinson. I am glad to see him back in top form. Now let's just hope he (and the rest of the guys on the this list) stay healthy the rest of the way and pay off during fantasy playoffs.

Look for Part II - Draft Busts and Part III - Guys you didn't draft but with you did, later this week. Also, don't forget that Thursday night games start this week so make sure to check your lineups (this week's game is Ravens vs. Falcons.)

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